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07/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are set to play the second contest of a three-game weekend series from the Coliseum this evening.
Pitcher Scott Kazmir has fallen far short of expectations for the Angels this season, a major reason that the team continues to trail division-leading Texas in the American League West race. Kazmir is 7-8 with a 5.98 ERA for the year and was torched for seven earned runs in 6 1/3 innings by the White Sox on Monday. The hard-throwing lefty has only struck out 58 batters in 87 1/3 innings while walking 46.
Kazmir did win his only previous start against Oakland this season and is 9-3 lifetime with a 2.85 ERA versus the Athletics.
A's starter Ben Sheets is just 3-8 this season with a 4.89 ERA, but there is reason for optimism in Oakland. The big righty, who takes the mound tonight, allowed three earned runs over a season-high 7 1/3 innings Monday against the New York Yankees, and while that game did end in defeat, Sheets finally feels back to form after missing last season due to elbow surgery.
Sheets has faced the Angels four times in his career, and while his 3.67 ERA against the squad is solid, he has yet to win a game (0-2).
Erick Aybar's leadoff homer in the 10th proved to be the difference in Friday's series opener as the Angels defeated the A's, 6-5, despite squandering three different leads.
Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu each added a two-run homer for the Angels, who snapped a four-game losing streak. Hideki Matsui added a sacrifice fly in the victory.
"We need to focus on our club, not who we're playing," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said after the game. "We have a lot of things on our club we need to tighten up a little bit, do more consistently. Obviously, out of the batter's box we did a better job tonight and got the win."
Joel Pineiro was in line for the win after allowing three runs in seven solid innings, but the Angels righty had his six-start win streak snapped after Fernando Rodney gave up two runs in the eighth. Kevin Jepsen (1-1) received the win and Brian Fuentes recorded his 16th save by throwing the ninth.
Jack Cust hit a solo home run for the Athletics, who have lost four in a row. Kevin Kouzmanoff finished with two hits and Coco Crisp had an RBI in defeat.
Vin Mazzaro yielded three runs, four hits and three walks in a seven-inning start for Oakland, while Andrew Bailey (0-3) was saddled with the loss after giving up Aybar's game-winning homer.
"You really want to win that first one, especially after getting swept by the Yankees," Bailey said. "It's a tough loss. We have to do our jobs and win the next two."
The Angels have won seven of 11 meetings with Oakland this season and are 11-4 in the 15 most recent contests between the AL West foes.
<< Lee set to make Texas debut against Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh of Friday's acquisition of star pitcher Cliff Lee,
the first-place Texas Rangers continue their four-game series against the
lowly Baltimore Orioles in Arlington tonight.
It appeared that the New York Yankees had a d
<< Still-winless Suppan gets call for Cards against Astros
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran right-hander Jeff Suppan tries again to end a
season-long drought when the St. Louis Cardinals visit Minute Maid Park
tonight for the second of three weekend games with the Houston Astros.
The Cardinals won Friday'
<< Brewers, Bucs resume series between slumping clubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Dave Bush can beat his hometown team for the
second time this season when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates
tonight in the middle game of a three-game series at Miller Park.
The Brewers won Fri
<< Rays strive for rebound in latest battle with Indians
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays had a six-game winning streak halted on
Friday and will attempt to get back on track tonight, when they continue a
four-game series with the Cleveland Indians at Tropicana Field.
Lefty Aaron Laffey will
Rockies hoping to gain further ground on sliding Padres >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their lead atop the National League's West Division
beginning to shrink, the San Diego Padres will be attempting to fend off the
hard-charging Colorado Rockies in tonight's middle test of a critical three-
game series be
Yankees seeking eighth straight win in Seattle >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third of four weekend games between the New York
Yankees and Seattle Mariners will ensue at Safeco Field tonight, but the
contest seems secondary in the headlines to a trade that fell through between
the teams yesterday.
Sadler expects to depart RPM at season's end >>
Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Elliott Sadler said he does not plan to return
to Richard Petty Motorsports for the 2011 Sprint Cup Series season.
Sadler spoke with the media on Friday at Chicagoland Speedway. The 35-year-old
driver said tha
Nets reach agreement with backup C Johan Petro >>
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) -The New Jersey Nets have reached a contract agreement with center Johan Petro.The Nets did not announce the terms of the deal Saturday, but an NBA official with knowledge of the agreement tells The Associated Press the co
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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