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07/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Ben Sheets hitting the disabled list Dallas Braden will head to the hill for Oakland, as the Athletics battle the Chicago White Sox this afternoon in the finale of a three-game set at the Coliseum.
Sheets, who was suppose to start for the A's this afternoon and who is 2-2 in his last four outings, will head to the DL with an injury to the same elbow that kept him away from baseball all of last season. Sheets is no stranger to the disabled list, as this will be the hard-throwing right-hander's seventh trip.
As for Braden, he is making his second start since returning from the disabled list. On Tuesday against Boston the southpaw did not last long in his return to the rotation, surrendering four runs -- one earned -- on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings. Braden did strike out six batters, but remained winless for Oakland since tossing his perfect game on Mother's Day.
The California native has made 10 starts at the Coliseum this season and despite having a 3-4 ledger, the lefty possesses a solid 3.06 ERA.
This will be the second career outing for Braden against Chicago. In his only other meeting with the Pale hoes, Braden surrendered three runs in seven innings and struck out four batters in a no decision.
The White Sox will rely on Daniel Hudson, who will be making his third start since being called up from Charlotte. After a rough outing in his debut against Seattle, the Virginia native was much more effective against Seattle, as he held the Mariners to just one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings. The young hurler collected six strike outs and overcame four walks for the win.
Hudson made one relief appearance against Oakland in his brief career and in 2 1/3 innings of work, the right-hander surrendered two runs on five hits.
On Saturday, Kurt Suzuki had three hits, including a home run, to lead the Athletics in a 10-2 rout of the White Sox.
Suzuki, who signed a contract extension on Friday, scored twice and knocked in two runs for the Athletics, who have won eight of 10 and improved to 23-10 in day games this season. Jack Cust homered twice and walked three times, while Daric Barton had two hits and two RBI in the victory.
Vin Mazzaro (6-2) pitched six solid innings for the win, allowing two runs, three hits and three walks while fanning five.
Ramon Castro's two-run homer provided Chicago's lone offense, as the White Sox lost for the fifth time in eight games. Freddy Garcia (9-4) was blasted for five runs, six hits and three walks in just 1 1/3 frames to take the loss.
<< Carpenter, Cards try to avoid three-game sweep at Wrigley
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Carpenter goes after win No. 12 this evening when
the St. Louis Cardinals try to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the
Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Carpenter won his second straight start on Tuesday agains
<< Happ returns to Phils to face Rockies
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former rookie sensation J.A. Happ takes the mound for the
first time since April today, when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Colorado
Rockies in the third test of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
On Saturday, J
<< Padres hope to get the brooms out in Pittsburgh
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres will try to complete a three-game
sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon at PNC Park.
The Padres won for the sixth time in eight games since the All-Star break on
Saturday, as Everth Cabrera an
<< Braves, Marlins play rubber match in South Beach
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jair Jurrjens tries to win his fourth straight decision
this afternoon when the Atlanta Braves close out a three-game series with the
Florida Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.
Jurrjens has gone 3-0 in his four starts since ret
Shin denies Pressel, Thompson at Evian Masters >>
Evian-les-Bains, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former world No. 1 Jiyai Shin
birdied the 18th hole Sunday to earn a one-shot victory at the Evian Masters,
her seventh win on the LPGA Tour.
Shin made five birdies for a five-under 67, fi
Mets wrap up disastrous road trip at Chavez Ravine >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - R.A. Dickey targets his first win in six starts this
afternoon when the New York Mets wrap up what has been a disastrous road trip
with the finale of their four-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at
Dodger Stadium.
Giants, Lincecum go for sweep in Arizona >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum tries to bounce back from a shaky effort his
last time out when the San Francisco Giants close out a four-game series with
the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
Lincecum escaped without getting a decision o
Detwiler makes season debut in finale with Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lefty Ross Detwiler makes his season debut today when the
Washington Nationals try to avoid a sweep in the finale of a three-game series
with the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park.
On Saturday, Ryan Braun drove in Rickie We
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Favors Fighting Irish to win College Football betting odds
According to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, on January 8, the Fighting Irish faithful may be toasting their 14th national title in Arizona – Notre Dame’s first national championship in close to 20 years.
Although MySportsbook.com has listed Notre Dame as the 5-1 favorite to win thecollege football College Football betting, fans in Columbus do not need to cancel their tickets to Glendale just yet. The Ohio State Buckeyes, listed right behind the Irish at 7-1, are also heavy favorites to win college football’s most coveted prize, while West Virginia, USC and the 2007 National Champion Texas Longhorns - all listed at 8-1 – are strong contenders as well.
MySportsbook.com has also posted gambling odds on the conference championships for the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. In the ACC – it could be anyone’s title, particularly for the two schools from the Sunshine State. Florida State and Miami, both listed at 2-1, are favored to win the ACC Championship Game odds, with the ‘Noles hoping to finish in the nation’s top 10 for the first time in five years, and the ‘Canes looking to avenge their 10-7 loss against FSU in last year’s ACC Championship betting.
Moving west to the Big 12, MySportsbook.com has betting lines listing Texas as 7-5 favorites to repeat as conference champions, even though the Longhorns lost their national championship-winning quarterback Vince Young to the NFL. In the south, the Auburn Tigers – led by Heisman-hopeful senior running back Kenny Irons – have been given the best odds to win the SEC Championship odds at 5-2.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
| Notre Dame Ohio State West Virginia Texas USC Florida California Auburn Oklahoma Iowa Louisville Florida State Michigan Miami (FL) LSU Penn State Virginia Tech Nebraska Tennessee Georgia Arizona State Oregon Clemson Texas A&M Texas Tech Alabama Arkansas Boston College Michigan State Maryland South Carolina Colorado Purdue Georgia Tech TCU UCLA Arizona Pittsburgh Iowa State Wisconsin North Carolina State Virginia North Carolina Fresno State Hawaii Northwestern BYU Oregon State UNLV Field (Any Other Team) |
5-1 7-1 8-1 8-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 18-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 25-1 40-1 40-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 70-1 70-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 150-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 250-1 250-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 400-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 1000-1 1000-1 40-1 |
| Miami (FL) Florida State Virginia Tech Clemson Georgia Tech Boston College Maryland Virginia North Carolina State North Carolina Wake Forest Duke |
2-1 2-1 3-1 7-1 15-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 500-1 |
| Texas Oklahoma Nebraska Texas Tech Colorado Iowa State Texas A&M Kansas State Missouri Kansas Baylor Oklahoma State |
7-5 9-5 9-2 12-1 14-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 35-1 100-1 100-1 |
| Auburn Florida LSU Georgia Tennessee Arkansas Alabama Mississippi South Carolina Mississippi State Kentucky Vanderbilt |
5-2 11-4 4-1 6-1 7-1 7-1 9-1 20-1 28-1 75-1 100-1 300-1 |
For complete NCAA football odds please visit Mysportsbook.com.
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