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08/30/2010 - Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With two races to go before the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" begins at New Hampshire, Daytona 500 champion and Brickyard 400 winner Jamie McMurray says he won't be disappointed if he doesn't qualify for the playoffs.
McMurray moved up to 13th in the point standings after finishing third last week at Bristol. He trails 12th-place Clint Bowyer by a distant 100 points, while Mark Martin is one marker behind McMurray in the 14th spot.
"It certainly is a better position to be in right now for us, because there only is one person we have to pass," McMurray said. "When you have three or four in between you, you have to hope all of them have something bad happen to all them.
"But [Bowyer] is running really well right now. I kind of put him in the same category as us. They are running really well, but they've had a lot of DNFs [Did Not Finish]. I think that team will perform fine, and we will just have to wait and see how it works out."
Despite winning the two most prestigious races of the season, it's been an inconsistent season for McMurray, who is in his first year as driver of the No.1 Chevrolet for Earnhardt Ganassi Racing.
McMurray didn't know who he would drive for in 2010 after his Roush Fenway Racing No.26 team folded tent at the end of the 2009 season. McMurray landed a ride with EGR in the No.1 car after Martin Truex Jr. moved over to Michael Waltrip Racing.
McMurray made an impressive debut with EGR by winning the season-opening Daytona 500, but after the series raced again in Daytona last month, McMurray sat 19th in points.
Since then, McMurray has scored four top-10 finishes, including his Indianapolis victory, in the last six races.
After the September 11 race at Richmond -- the 26th and final event in the Sprint Cup regular season -- the top-12 drivers in points will make up the field for the Chase -- the final 10 races that determine the champion.
So the pressure is on for several drivers in the next two races, particularly Martin, who finished second to champion and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson in the 2009 Chase, and Ryan Newman, who ended last season ninth in points. Newman is 118 points in back of Bowyer.
But the stress of making the Chase is not necessarily affecting McMurray as much as other drivers who are attempting to make the field.
While McMurray is content with winning more races this season, he's letting crew chief Kevin "Bono" Manion do the worrying about making the Chase.
"[Manion] certainly is worried about it," McMurray said. "I remember the stress that goes along with that, and I'm really fortunate this year that we were able to win those two big races, because if we don't make the Chase, it's not going to be devastating."
McMurray's chances of making the Chase are slim, but history shows that by no means is he out of the running.
In 2006, Kasey Kahne was 90 points behind the cutoff spot for the Chase with two races to go, but Kahne won at California and then finished third at Richmond to squeak into the playoffs by 16 points. The Chase field back then consisted of 10 drivers. NASCAR expanded it to 12 the following year.
Can McMurray better Kahne's feat from four years ago? That's going to greatly depend on how well Bowyer performs at Atlanta and Richmond.
"I love Atlanta and Richmond and run well there," Bowyer said. "With any luck at all, we'll be in this thing."
Bowyer certainly deserves to be in the Chase this year after his disappointing season in '09, but it would also make for a feel-good story if McMurray can rise up and qualify for the field.
<< This Week in Golf - September 2nd through September 5th
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP, TPC Boston,
Norton, Massachusetts - Remember everyone, the second leg of the PGA Tour
Playoffs starts on Friday to accommodate the American Labor Day holiday.
The new FedEx Cup
<< Callahan in as William & Mary quarterback
Williamsburg, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - William & Mary football coach Jimmye
Laycock has named fifth-year senior Mike Callahan as the fourth-ranked Tribe's
starting quarterback for Saturday's season opener at Massachusetts.
Callahan earned t
<< Dolphins waive/injured TE Haynos
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins placed tight end Joey
Haynos on the waived/injured list Monday.
Haynos suffered a serious foot injury during last Friday's 16-6 exhibition
loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
The Maryl
<< Manny awarded to White Sox through waiver claim
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers announced on Monday
that outfielder Manny Ramirez has been awarded to the Chicago White Sox
through a waiver claim.
The Dominican native has been limited to 66 games for LA t
Shunted aside by Sabres, Kennedy signs with Rangers >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Rangers agreed to terms with
free-agent forward Tim Kennedy on Monday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but multiple outlets revealed it is for
one year.
The Buffalo Sabres waived
Roddick rolls at U.S. Open >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Birthday boy and former champion Andy
Roddick was an easy opening-round winner Monday at the U.S. Open.
The ninth-seeded former world No. 1 Roddick, celebrating his 28th birthday on
Monday, blasted hel
Rachel Alexandra in good shape after Personal Ensign loss >>
Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending Horse of the Year Rachel
Alexandra came out of Sunday's upset loss in the Personal Ensign Stakes in
good condition and will return to training on Wednesday.
Trainer Steve Asmussen sa
Rangers activate OF Cruz from DL >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers activated outfielder
Nelson Cruz from the 15-day disabled list among several roster moves on
Monday.
The 30-year-old has landed on the DL three times this season -- all w
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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