Zenyatta to face eight in Santa Margarita

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time champion mare Zenyatta makes her 2010 debut Saturday in the $250,000 Santa Margarita Invitational at Santa Anita Park. The six-year-old will take on eight other older females in the 1 1/8- mile race.

Zenyatta, trained by John Shirreffs, will start from post eight with Mike Smith again having the mount. Owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, Zenyatta is undefeated in 14 career starts for nearly $5.5 million.

"I'm an owner and a fan," Jerry Moss said recently, "and a fan and an owner. "We're lucky to have this horse. Right now, she's progressing really well and her presence is good for the game, because I would agree that racing needs all the help it can get."

The last two years Zenyatta has been voted champion older female and for 2009 finished second for Horse of the Year to Rachel Alexandra. She won the 2008 Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic and last year became the first female to capture the Breeders' Cup Classic.

If all goes well on Saturday, Zenyatta will finally meet Rachel Alexandra in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park on Friday, April 9.

"It's very exciting," Moss said about the Apple Blossom. "We like Oaklawn. We've been there a couple of times."

The mare won the Apple Blossom two years ago.

Rachel Alexandra will be in this Saturday's $200,000 New Orleans Ladies at the Fair Grounds.

Here is the full field for the Santa Margarita in post position order: Dance to My Tune, Martin Garcia; Pretty Katherine, Joel Rosario; Made for Magic. Omar Berrio; Pretty Unusual, Chantal Sutherland; Striking Dancer, Alex Solis; Powerofvoodoo, Tyler Kaplan; Gripsholm Castle, Victor Espinoza; Zenyatta, Mike Smith and Floating Heart, Joe Talamo.

The Santa Margarita has a post-time of 6:36 p.m. (et).

Coming up about an hour later will be the $150,000 San Felipe Stakes for three-year-olds. The 1 1/16-mile race is a prep for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday, April 3.

The seven horse field features undefeated gelding Caracortado. The chestnut three-year-old is perfect in five career starts for $199,200. Last month he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita with regular rider Paul Atkinson. The pair will start from the outside post on Saturday.

"It doesn't seem like distance will be a problem for him, either," Atkinson said. "Like in the Lewis, he just waited, and sitting on him, it was kind of like, 'Can we go now? How about now? Are we ready yet?' When I let him go, he just turns it on and gives you everything he's got."

Here is the complete field for the San Felipe in post position order: Stephen's Got Hope, Tyler Baze; Interactif, Rafael Bejarano; Erbeia, Alex Solis; American Lion, Julien Leparoux; Sidney's Candy, Joe Talamo; Dave in Dixie, Joel Rosario and Caracortado, Paul Atkinson.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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